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SILAM forecasts for dispersion of smoke from Icelandic eruption



Description of products

Below links point at automatic forecasts of SILAM system of the volcanic plume dispersion from Iceland. The European forecasts are made with ECMWF and HIRLAM data each time the new meteo fields are available: twice a day for ECMWF (00 and 12 UTC analysis times) and 4 times for HIRLAM (00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC). The “latest” forecast points at the last-performed simulations. The hemispheric forecasts are made on-request basis or when significant source changes take place.

Thick purple contour line denotes the 10 micrograms of ash / m3 concentration threshold.

Source term: volcanic ash of 3 micrometre in diameter and density of 2800 kg/m3

The time dependence of the release rate is justified here

 

Transport: Eulerian SILAM, dry and wet deposition.


SILAM forecasts for Europe, ECMWF meteo data

LATEST forecast, ECMWF meteo
00utc forecast, ECMWF meteo
12utc forecast, ECMWF meteo

SILAM forecasts for Europe, HIRLAM meteo data

LATEST forecast, HIRLAM meteo
00utc forecast, HIRLAM meteo
06utc forecast, HIRLAM meteo
12utc forecast, HIRLAM meteo
18utc forecast, HIRLAM meteo

 

SILAM forecast for Northern Hemisphere (performed on best-effort basis), ECMWF meteo data

Northern Hemisphere forecast with the above source term